How to predict football scores (and beat your friends)

Start from the scores that actually happen

Most of Europe's big leagues average between two and a half and three goals a game. Low scores such as 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1 come up again and again, and a 4-3 sticks in the memory because it is rare.

So when you have no strong view on a match, pick one of the common scores in the direction you think the game will go. A 3-2 might feel bold, but bold guesses mostly lose points.

Don't be afraid of the draw

Draws are the result people predict least. In a typical round of predictions there are hardly any, even though draws are a regular result in every big league. Under bullseye scoring a draw is also worth more than a home win when you get it exactly right (44 for a 1-1 against 31 for a 1-0), so picking one or two draws a round, in the matches that look closest, is a good habit.

Don't back the home side every time

The home side wins more often than the away side, but nowhere near every time. Predicting a home win in every match is the most common lazy round, and it rarely wins a league. When two sides are close in the table, a draw or an away win can be just as likely.

Wait for the team news

Team sheets come out about an hour before kick-off. A missing striker or a rested goalkeeper changes a match more than any form table. On PrediSportsHQ each match stays open until its own kick-off, so you can predict the early game on Saturday and leave the late one until you know who is playing.

Predict with your head, not your shirt

Everybody overrates their own team and underrates their rivals. If you can't be objective about a match involving your club, predict the score you'd give if you didn't care who won.

Know when to play it safe

If you're leading with a few rounds to go, you want the same results as everyone else, so stick with the obvious calls. If you're chasing, you need different results from the leader, and a well-chosen Golden Pick on an upset is the quickest way to close the gap. The scoring matters too: when a wrong result costs points, a cautious 1-1 in a match you can't read is often worth more than a guess.

Compare yourself with the AI

Every round, PrediSportsHQ's AI makes its own call on each match in the big five leagues and the Champions League, and after full time the page shows which calls were bullseyes, right results or wrong. It is a useful second opinion, and a fair target: if you can't beat it over a season, your friends probably can. See this round's AI predictions.

To see exactly how your guesses turn into points, read how the points work.